Predictable Recap of the Year for the Ceramic Industry on Both Sides of the Atlantic

General Overview: A Contrasting 2024

The European ceramic industry faces a 2024 marked by a contraction in imports in both the EU27 and USA, driven by structural and cyclical factors impacting demand and sector competitiveness.

While the European Union reports a 5.09% decline in ceramic imports compared to 2023, the United States follows a similar trajectory with a 3% to 4% decrease in value and volume. However, there are nuances differentiating the situation on both sides of the Atlantic.

Decline in Demand in the EU27: Key Factors

Comparison of Ceramic Imports in the EU27 (2023 vs. 2024)

Month      | Imports 2023 (€) | Imports 2024 (€) | Variation (%)  
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January    | 26,544,329.68    | 25,694,870.09    | -3.20%  
February   | 31,852,072.43    | 30,177,338.30    | -5.26%  
March      | 37,924,412.96    | 34,197,650.40    | -9.83%  
April      | 30,921,845.38    | 33,395,285.39    | +8.00%  
May        | 36,278,124.03    | 33,989,088.70    | -6.31%  
June       | 36,289,985.73    | 31,534,217.01    | -13.12%  
July       | 31,933,966.50    | 33,604,089.61    | +5.23%  
August     | 26,170,694.35    | 21,860,041.27    | -16.46%  
September  | 32,790,672.03    | 27,889,282.42    | -14.96%  
October    | 28,983,587.04    | 27,788,025.46    | -4.13%  
November   | 27,181,820.09    | 24,631,030.00 (Est.) | -9.39%  
December   | 20,974,347.83    | 24,372,570.00 (Est.) | +16.19%

Ceramic trade in sqm in the EU27 has shown a downward trend throughout 2024, with a particularly significant decline during the summer months. Despite slight rebounds in April and July, the year closed with a generally negative trend:

Total Internal Trade Forecast for the EU27 2024 vs. 2023: -5.09%
Largest declines: June (-13.12%), August (-16.46%), and September (-14.96%)
Projected November and December: November remains in decline (-9.39%), but December may see a rebound (+16.19%) compared to 2023.

The sector remains affected by the construction crisis in Europe, particularly in Germany, where the slowdown in the real estate sector has directly impacted the demand for ceramic coatings.

United States: An Industry Adjusting but Showing Signs of Stabilization

Evolution of Ceramic Imports in the U.S.

The U.S. market has shown sustained growth in ceramic imports in m² since 2014, reaching its peak in 2022. However, since 2023, there has been a slight contraction, reflecting both the slowdown in the construction sector and changes in import patterns.

Key Trends:

Between 2014 and 2019, imports grew steadily, driven by the recovery of the construction sector and strong demand for cladding materials.
In 2020, the pandemic caused a decline, although demand quickly rebounded in 2021 and 2022, reaching historic highs.
2023 and 2024 show a slowdown in imports, aligning with the contraction observed in the EU27, where declining internal trade has affected exports to the U.S.

The Role of the EU in U.S. Ceramic Imports

Market Share of U.S. Imports by Value

The distribution of imports by value in the U.S. in 2024 highlights Italy (32.59%) and Spain (27.45%) as leading exporters to the American market. However, competition from countries such as Mexico (14.36%), India (10.75%), Turkey (6.03%), Brazil (5.73%), and Vietnam (3.45%) is becoming increasingly significant.

The declining competitiveness of the European ceramic sector, influenced by high energy costs, has impacted the market share of Spain and Italy in the U.S., while Mexico and India have strengthened their presence due to lower production costs and more favorable logistics. This trend underscores the need for the European industry to implement strategies to maintain its position in the U.S. market, focusing on differentiation through quality, innovation, and sustainability.

The Energy Factor: A Risk on the Horizon

One of the biggest challenges for the European ceramic industry in the coming months is the impact of energy costs, especially with the seasonal fluctuation in Dutch Gas TTF prices, which could increase production costs during the winter.

Gas prices in Europe have shown an upward trend in recent months, which could translate into higher costs for ceramic manufacturing.
Ceramic companies have relied on relatively low energy prices in 2023, but the 2024 landscape and 2025 futures forecasts could change dramatically. During 2024, Dutch TTF gas prices experienced significant volatility. In January, prices were around €28.39/MWh, peaking at approximately €49.55/MWh in November, representing a 74% increase. By December, prices closed around €48.35/MWh, marking a total increase of 70% for the year. This evolution heightens concerns about the impact of energy costs on the European ceramic industry.
The risk of an energy crisis in winter 2025 could put additional pressure on the industry's competitiveness, particularly compared to the U.S., where energy costs are lower and more stable.
The European Commission has proposed a temporary cap on gas prices to mitigate the impact on the most affected industries, including ceramics. This measure aims to prevent a disproportionate increase in energy bills for businesses and enhance production cost stability.

Outlook for 2025: What Do Gas Futures Tell Us?

Projections for 2025 suggest that European natural gas prices could experience significant increases due to various factors:

Lower production and higher exports could tighten supply-demand balances, driving up gas prices.
New supply sources from Qatar and the U.S. could stabilize prices, according to the International Energy Agency.
Impact on ceramics: The sector has seen an exponential increase in gas costs in recent years (in 2021, energy costs in Spain rose by 142%).

If gas futures continue to rise, the risk of production offshoring will become a tangible reality, with more companies seeking alternatives in regions with lower energy costs.

Conclusion: A Sector in Transition

The European ceramic industry faces a challenging 2025, with a decline in demand in both the EU27 and the U.S., although there are signs of stability in the North American market. However, uncertainty over energy costs in Europe and the lack of a clear industrial strategy could play a crucial role in the sector’s competitiveness in the coming months.

To prevent further deindustrialization and job losses, it is urgent for the European Commission to adopt an effective support policy that enables the sector’s energy transition without compromising its economic viability.

The time to act is now. The ceramic industry is ready to be a pillar of Europe’s industrial transformation, but it needs a regulatory framework that ensures its future within the European economy.